Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
